Following on from the speculation on which brands might likely badge our cars in future, a sobering and thought-provoking analysis by Horace Dediu on ten good reasons why we’ve an automotive industry that’s remained largely unchanged for 100 years.

Of the ten barriers, No. 4 is perhaps the most pertinent for any tech-company followers:

“To understand how cars will or won’t change, study roads. There were roads before cars, but not paved and not for going far. The cars pay for the roads and, as a result, they pay for the logistic system that allowed all forms of powerful businesses to emerge. Walmart, McDonalds and Amazon and the entire retail, food and agriculture sectors owe their existence to the roads that car adoption paid for. Furthermore, the real-estate and entire living structure of many countries depends on roads.“

Here’s the article in full, including the other nine key points – The Entrant’s Guide to The Automobile Industry | Asymco.